News
The levels of blank sailings and capacity deployment that carriers have planned for the remainder of the third quarter can give a good perspective on their confidence in the 2024 peak season, according to Sea-Intelligence.
On the Asia-North America west coast trade, carriers have so far planned to blank 3.9% of the total capacity for the rest of the current peak season (weeks 29-39), which is not too dissimilar from the pre-pandemic average or from 2020. It is, however, significantly lower than in the pandemic years, when blank sailings were forced due to port congestion. Capacity growth across weeks 29-39 of 2024 is slated to be 24.6% when compared to the same weeks of 2023, and 10.2% over those of 2020. The strong capacity growth and relatively low blank sailings level suggest that carriers are bullish for the peak season on the trade lane.
On the Asia-North Europe trade, meanwhile, blanked capacity is slated to be 5.9% for the coming 11 weeks, which is only higher than the same weeks of 2020 and the pre-pandemic average, although it is not too different from those of 2020. In 2024, there is no year-on-year growth in deployed capacity. However, in 2023, capacity growth on the trade was 13.1% year on year, which was not only high relative to historical reference points, but also too high for the demand levels on the trade lane, evidenced by falling freight rate).
The fact that carriers are willing to maintain that level of elevated capacity on the Asia-North Europe trade in 2024, coupled with a relatively low level of blank sailings, indicates that they have a confident strong outlook for the peak season on the trade lane.
