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The maritime industry is once again bracing for a year of profound transformation. According to a recent analysis, 2025 is set to be a period of "tumultuous" year, characterized by heightened trade disruption risks.
Underscoring the pervasive influence of geopolitics on the shipping landscape, Rico Luman, ING's senior sector economist, notes in the analysis that "wars and political tensions have altered trade patterns, and protectionist actions may cause new inefficiencies." The central challenge, as Luman highlights, revolves around the resumption of the Red Sea/Suez route, "crucial for container shipping." Protracted rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, initially perceived as a temporary measure, has now become a de facto new normal, consuming a significant portion of the container fleet capacity and generating cascading delays across global supply chains.
"The extra 10-14 days and 3,500 nautical miles on a trip from Asia to Europe absorb around 10% of the container fleet capacity and continue to cause knock-on delays in ports," Luman says. This extended transit time has inflated freight rates, particularly within the container sector, providing a short-term financial boost. However, it has also resulted in increased shipment costs and a surge in emissions.
"In container shipping, this has flipped 2024 performance from bleak to the third-best year on record for many liners," Luman said. However, this temporary reprieve is tenuous. ING anticipates a "gradual process" for the resumption of Red Sea transits, with smaller bulk carriers and tankers leading the way, followed by the gradual return of ultra-large container carriers. The transition period, Luman predicts, will be marked by "disruptions", including port congestion and blank sailings.
