News
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is now predicting global merchandise trade volume growth of 10.8% in 2021, up from 8.0% forecasted in March, followed by a 4.7% rise in 2022.Growth should moderate as merchandise trade approaches its pre-pandemic long-run trend.
Supply-side issues such as semiconductor scarcity and port backlogs may strain supply chains and weigh on trade in particular areas, but they are unlikely to have large impacts on global aggregates. The biggest downside risks come from the pandemic itself.
Behind the strong overall trade increase, however, there is significant divergence across countries, with some developing regions falling well short of the global average.
The large annual growth 2021 is mostly a reflection of the previous year's slump, which bottomed out in the second quarter of 2020. Due to a lower base, year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2021 was 22.0%, but the figure is projected to fall to 10.9% in the third quarter and 6.6% in the fourth quarter, in part because of the rapid recovery in trade in the last two quarters of 2020.
Regional disparities will remain large. Imports of Asia in 2021 are expected to rise 9.4% compared to2019, while imports of Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) will fall1.6%.
