News
Nittsu Research Institute and Consulting, Inc. (NRIC) has unveiled a revision of its projections for the Japanese economy and cargo transport in fiscal 2016 (April 2016-Marh 2017). The think tank had downwardly adjust its original forecasts for domestic and international cargo transport, as it has been obvious now that the global economy is slowing down faster than expected, having an adverse impact on Japan.
NRIC anticipates in its revised report that oceangoing containerized shipments (loaded) to and from the Big Eight ports in Japan will increase a minute 0.1% year on year to 11.572 million TEUs next fiscal year, but that international air cargo to and from Japan will fall 0.5% to 2.001 million tons.
Oceangoing container exports in general are anticipated to remain under the impact of the slowdown in the global economy in the first half (April-September 2016), but in the second half (October 2016-March 2017), NRIC projects that those to the U.S. and Europe will both recover mildly and returned to a recovery track. However, exports to other Asian economies are not expected to recover as much, working as a factor to keep exports of containers from Japan from growing notably. In fiscal 2016, as such, they are foreseen to decrease 0.4% from a year earlier to 4.74 million TEUs. Making a downward adjustment from an increase of 0.9%, the research institute believes they will shrink from the previous year for two years in a row.
As for imports of oceangoing containers, NRIC foresees a slight improvement of 0.4% to 6.832 million TEUs for next fiscal year. Consumer spending is foreseen to pick up in the second half, thanks to last-minute growth in demand before the hike in the consumption tax rate scheduled for April 2017. Imports of consumer goods are not expected to increase notably, but the think tank added they will level off at most. Capital investment is projected to increase in number, but the increase is not estimated to be powerful enough to increase imports of machinery and equipment.
