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Data indicates that the share of non‑alliance capacity is rapidly diminishing on the trans-Pacific trade lane from Asia to North America west coast (NAWC), dropping to levels not seen in a decade, according to Sea-Intelligence.
Sea-Intelligence shows the development of Asia-NAWC non-alliance capacity over the past 14 years, calculated as a 13‑week rolling average, to account for short‑term volatility.
Historical spikes during periods of market turmoil clearly demonstrate that the barriers to entry for non‑alliance services are relatively low. However, over the past year, the capacity share of non‑alliance services has steadily declined to a 10‑year low, excluding a brief withdrawal period at the immediate onset of the pandemic.
Sea-Intelligence reveals a strong 79% correlation between spot rate levels and non‑alliance capacity, featuring an 18‑week delay. Furthermore, projections based on current carrier deployment plans point to a continued reduction, with non‑alliance services slated to drop below 15% of the total capacity on offer.
