News
With Houthi forces attacking commercial vessels around 100 times since November 2023, quarterly deadweight-ton (dwt) capacity transiting the Suez Canal has dropped by between 57% and 64% in the two years that have followed, according to a new analysis from the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO).
"100 days ago, on 29 September, Minervagracht was to become the last ship to be attacked by the Houthis, at least for now," said Niels Rusmussen, BIMCP chief shipping analyst. "Forty-three days later, the Houthis declared an end to their attacks on ships." "Despite this, traffic through the Suez Canal [has] not significantly increased, and in the first week of 2026, it remained 60% below the corresponding week in 2023, before ships started diverting around the Cape of Good Hope," he continued.
"While the safety of crew, ship and cargo remains paramount, recent reductions in Red Sea war risk premiums may encourage more ships to revert to Suez Canal routings," said Rusmussen. "In early December, S&P Global reported that premiums had fallen to 0.2% of hull values, the lowest since November 2023." "A normalization of ship transits now appears more likely than at any point during the last two years, but it remains unknown if, or how fast, this may happen," he added.
