News
With most holiday merchandise already on hand and tariffs continuing to rise, monthly import cargo volumes at U.S. major container ports are expected to fall below the two-million-TEU mark for the remainder of the year, according to the Global Port Tracker (GPT) report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates (HA).
“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold.
“Ongoing volatility in U.S. tariff policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see unpredictable shifts over the next four to six months,” said HA founder Ben Hackett. “Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent.”
The U.S. ports covered by GPT handled 2.32 million TEUs of containers in August, down 2.9% from July’s 2.39 million TEUs but up 0.1% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for September, but GPT projects the month at 2.12 million TEUs, down 6.8% year over year. October is forecast at 1.97 million TEUs, down 12.3%, and November at 1.75 million TEUs, down 19.2%. December is projected at 1.72 million TEUs, down 19.4% for the slowest month since 1.62 million TEUs in March 2023. January 2026 is estimated at 1.87 million TEUs, down 16.1%, and February 2026 is forecast at 1.77 million TEUs, down 12.8%.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEUs, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is envisaged at 24.79 million TEUs, down 2.9% from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024.
