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In 2024, 478 container ships with a combined capacity of 3.1 million TEUs are scheduled for delivery, which would help the global container fleet capacity exceed 30 million TEUs for the first time, according to Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO).
The imbalance between supply and demand is set to widen in 2024, BIMCO has indicted. However, prolonged disruptions in the Red Sea, forcing ships to sail via the Cape of Good Hope, could tighten the supply-demand balance. Another 3 million TEU are, meanwhile, scheduled to be delivered in 2025-2026, and unless recycling increases significantly, the market imbalance appears set to return once the Red Sea situation is resolved.
In 2023, shipyards delivered 350 new containerships with a total capacity of 2.2 million TEUs, beating the previous record in 2015 when newbuildings of 1.7 million TEUs were delivered. Ships of larger than 15,000 TEUs continued to dominate deliveries, and the segment grew 28% after 1.3 million TEUs were delivered in 2023. As 2023 saw a relatively low level of containership recycling, however, new ships entering the fleet caused an 8% rise in capacity, the fastest growth registered since 2011.
In 2024, as described above, newbuildings of 3.1 million TEUs are expected for delivery, which would increase the total capacity by 41%. Ship recycling is expected to increase in 2024, but the fleet could still grow by nearly 2.8 million TEUs and by the end of 2024, it could exceed 30 million TEUs for the first time in history. Another 83 ships of larger than 15,000 TEUs are expected to be delivered in 2024, adding 1.4 million TEUs to the segment’s capacity and doubling its capacity in just four years.
Although an increase in delivery is projected, demand is estimated to slow by 3 to 4% in 2024. In the meantime, the average sailing speed of containerships has reduced from 14.3 knots in 2022 to 13.9 knots in 2023 and could fall further in 2024. This could lower the efficiency of the fleet, and an extra capacity of 3 to 4% may have to be deployed to ensure that the 2024 volume increase can be accommodated.
