News
Global trade is projected to end the year 5% down compared to 2022’s record level, shrinking by about $1.5 trillion to below $31 trillion, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)’s latest Global Trade Update. Trade in services is envisaged to increase 7%, or $500 billion, but trade in goods is predicted to fall 7.5%, or $2 trillion.
As for trade in goods, there is a slight improvement in terms of volume, but in terms of value, it is envisaged to slow on a yearly scale due to lower demand in developed countries, less trade in East Asia, lower primary goods prices and others.
The outlook for 2024 remains “highly uncertain and generally pessimistic,” UNCTAD says in the Global Trade Update, released on Monday. Due to regional gaps in economic forecasts, high interest rates and poor production activities, commodity price volatility and geopolitical concerns, some developing economies—particularly Mexico and East Asian countries—have had opportunities to better integrate supply chains into those between China and the U.S., lengthening their supply chains. Also, an uptick in trade-restrictive measures and poor container transport demand are foreseen to adversely impact global trade.
