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Demand for international marine transport is expected to recover in the short term but grow slowly in the medium term, according to Mizuho Bank, one of the largest banks in Japan.
In 2023, container exports from Asia to the U.S. are envisaged to aggregate 18.31 million TEUs, down 12.8% from the previous year due to inventory pileups at retailers. Shipments to and from North America, Europe and other Asian economies are projected to total 92.32 million TEUs, down 3.3%. In 2024, however, excess inventory is foreseen to be liquidate, swelling the total 2.7% to 94.84 million TEUs.
In the medium run, Mizuho Bank anticipates that containers to and from North America, Europe and other Asian economies will continue to swell at an annual rate of 2.2% and reach 102.7 million TEUs in 2028. Container movement is predicted to increase continuously thanks to economic growth in many countries. Nevertheless, enlargements in protectionism and nearshoring behaviors to reduce supply chain risks are projected to keep container trade increased at low speeds.
