23.06.02Good Barometer Index Rises

The value of the goods barometer index rose to 95.6 in the latest reading, up from 92.2 in March, but remained well below the baseline value of 100, suggesting a below-trend stabilization and the beginnings of an upturn in merchandise trade volumes, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Mixed signals in the barometer's component indices nevertheless suggest that the road to trade recovery may be bumpy.

Preliminary data suggest that trade remained depressed in January-March, but the recent pickup in export orders points to an increase in demand for traded goods in April-June. These results are broadly consistent with the WTO's most recent trade forecast issued on April 5, which projects a 1.7% growth in world merchandise trade in 2023.