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In the full year of 2020, global container shipping volumes fell by 1.2% compared with 2019, much less than feared even before the pandemic was first declared, and much recovered compared with the 6.8% drop recorded in the first six months of the year according to a market analysis report released by BIMCO.

Volumes in the second half of the year were up 4.2% from 2019. Much of this growth was concentrated on just a few trade lanes, with congestion and imbalances on these spilling out and causing disruption on other trades.

BIMCO expects that 2021 will be even better for container shipping than 2020, as the current backlog will take months to clear and carriers are using the current strength of the market to lock in long-term contract rates for the coming 12 months at higher levels than in 2020.

By far the largest volume growth was seen on the Far East to North America trade. On this route, volumes rose by 3.6m TEU in the second half of the year compared with the first, while volumes rose 2.1m TEUs compared with the second half of 2019, enough to bring full year growth into positive (+1.4m TEUs).

Of the three most important, high-volume trades, the Far-East to North America was the only one to grow over the full year, as growth on intra-Asian and Far East to Europe trades in the second half of the year was not enough to make up for H1 losses. After falling by 1.1m TEU in the first half of the year, volumes between the Far East and Europe were only up by 0.2m TEU in the second half of 2020, leaving full year volumes on this trade down 5.2% compared with 2019.

On the Intra-Asian trades, a 2.2% growth in the second half of the year compared to H2 2019, was not enough to recover a 4.0% loss in the first half.

On the routes from the Far East towards the US and Europe, only spot rates to Europe fell over the course of the first half of the year, bottoming out in April at just under USD 1,639 per TEU, which was still higher than rates in much of 2019.

Once volumes started to rise, rates followed the upwards journey that would take them to the record high levels which carriers are still enjoying today. The first increase in spot rates was seen on the Far East to US West Coast trade, as this was where the uptick in volumes happened first and fastest.

In recent months, the steep upwards path of spot freight rates on the transpacific trade lanes have stopped, partly due to intervention from the Chinese government. However, as demand has remained strong, and carriers still hold the upper hand, gradually increasing surcharges have been added to the base freight rates. This has stopped freight rates from rising further but left shippers with higher costs. As of mid-February, surcharges to guarantee space and equipment on the major trades stand between USD 1,500 and USD 2,500 per TEU.

All in all, BIMCO expects that 2021 will be even better for container shipping than 2020, as the current backlog will take months to clear and carriers are using the current strength of the market to lock in long-term contract rates for the coming 12 months at higher levels than in 2020.


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