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Nittsu Research Institute and Consulting, Inc. (NRIC) recently unveiled a revision of its fiscal 2019 (April 2019-March 2020) cargo transport forecast. The think tank now projects that oceangoing containers and air cargo to and from Japan will both turn downward, impacted by the prolonged trade friction between the U.S. and China, a slowdown in the Chinese economy and other factors.
As for oceangoing containers, NRIC now envisages that construction machinery, industrial machinery and other commodities will be sluggish due to weakness in demand for capital investment in other countries and regions. As such, container exports from Japan are anticipated to fall 2.7% year on year to 5.044 million TEUs in total. As for imports, meanwhile, the research institute foresees that growth in parts and components for production and machinery will both shrink from a year earlier. It is anticipated that imports of containerized shipments will only improve a minute 0.2% to 7.522 million TEUs. The total of exports and imports is estimated to decrease 1% to 12.566 million TEUs, taking the first downward turn in four years.
NRIC sees that negative growth will be even greater in airborne shipments. In respect to exports, those to other Asian economies, which lead overall air cargo movement from Japan, are not forecast to recover in 2019 under the effect of downward pressure from the U.S.-China trade conflict. Exports in general are projected to plunge 17.2% to 1.1 million tons. Concerning imports, it is expected there will be a last-minute rise in demand for consumer goods prior to a hike in the consumption tax rate on Oct. 1, but that the rise will only be minor. Production goods are also forecast to be stagnant due to a deceleration in capital investment. As such, the Nippon Express Co., Ltd. (Nittsu) subsidiary think that imports of airfreight to Japan will wane 2.7% to 1.221 million tons. Exports and imports are both foreseen to suffer year-on-year declines for the first time in four years.
