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Nittsu Research Institute and Consulting, Inc. (NRIC) unveiled outlooks for the economy and cargo transport in fiscal 2017 (April 2017-March 2018). The think tank projected that imports and exports of containerized shipments to and from eight major ports in Japan will amount to 11.851 million TEUs in total, which would increase 0.9% from a year earlier. Imports are anticipated to increase slightly due to a week recovery in domestic demand, while exports are foreseen to grow year on year for the second consecutive year, thanks to a gradual recovery in the global economy.
As for imports, NRIC stated that next fiscal year, consumer sentiment will not be as brisk as expected, and that imports of consumer goods will not increase as sharply as anticipated. For these reasons, it indicated that imports will return to a recovery track in the second half or even later. Looking at machinery, the movement of auto parts and components is foreseen to stay robust. The number of capital investment projects is believed to increase more notably than a year earlier. As such, imports of general machinery and electrical machinery are both forecast to bottom out, but not seen to become so powerful as to begin picking up again. Imports are estimated to rise a minute 0.7% to 6.944 million TEUs.
As regards exports, the research institute indicated that those to Europe and Southeast Asia will be steady in the fiscal year in question. In contrast, containers to China are not expected to improve as vividly as expected, resulting from a slowdown in the growth of the nation’s economy. Those to the U.S. are also thought to be unclear. By item, exports of general machinery are likely to remain bearish. NRIC projects that auto parts and components will be steady, and that those of electrical machinery and chemical products will either improve slightly or remained unchanged from a year earlier. The total is anticipated to increase 1.1% to 4.907 million TEUs. However, it added that it could register negative growth, depending on the movement of those to the U.S. and a recovery in those to newly industrialized economies.
