News
Import volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to see a skewed year-over-year bump again this month in anticipation of more tariffs and rising fuel prices but then remain below last year’s levels into the fall, according to a Global Port Tracker (GPT) report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates (HA).
“We expect to see a year-over-year increase this month that’s partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said the year-over-year gain expected in June is partly because of the comparison against import levels that dropped sharply after President Donald Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025. But higher shipping costs and worries about additional tariffs imposed after those tariffs were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court are also a concern.
The U.S. ports covered by GPT handled 2.05 million TEUs of containers in April, although the Port of New York and New Jersey has not yet reported its numbers. That was down 5.1% from March and down 7.3% year over year. Ports have not yet reported May numbers, but GPT projects the month at 2.14 million TEUs, up 9.7% from a year earlier. June is forecast at 2.25 million TEUs. July is forecast at 2.19 million TEUs, down 8.4%; August at 2.12 million TEUs, down 8.6%; and September at 2.06 million TEUs, down 2.2%. October is forecast at 2.08 million TEUs, up 0.1%. Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.6 million TEUs, up 0.6% from the same period in 2025 thanks, in part, to the May-June increases.
