News
With sweeping tariffs now imposed on all U.S. trading partners, imports to U.S. major container ports is expected to drop dramatically beginning next month, according to a Global Port Tracker (GPT) report released on Wednesday by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
As a result, imports in the second half of 2025 are now expected to be down at least 20% year over year, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. Even balanced against elevated levels earlier this year, that could bring total 2025 cargo volume to a net decline of 15% or more unless the situation changes.
The U.S. ports covered by GPT handled 2.06 million TEUs in February, although the ports of New York and New Jersey have yet to report final data. That was down 7.5% from January but up 5.2% year over year. It was the busiest February in three years even through the month is traditionally the slowest of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China.
Ports have not yet reported March's numbers, but GPT projects the month at 2.14 million TEUs, up 11.1% year over year. April-which includes cargo shipped before the new tariffs were announced-is forecast at 2.08 million TEUs, up 3.1%. But May is expected to end 19 consecutive months of year-over-year growth, dropping sharply to 1.66 million TEUs, down 20.5%. June is forecast at 1.57 million TEUs, the lowest volume since February 2023 and a 26.6% drop. July is forecast at 1.69 million TEUs, down 27%, and August at 1.7 million TEUs, down 26.8%.
The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 11.73 million TEUs, down 2.9% year over year rather than the total of 12.78 million TEUs, up 5.7% year over year, that was forecast before the tariff announcement.
