News
Ship supply is expected to grow on average 10.3% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2025, according to the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO). Ship demand is projected to increase an estimated 15% in 2024 and fall 5% in 2025 if ships return to the Suez Canal.
Attacks on ships in the Red Sea have forced nearly all containerships to sail around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10% to average sailing distances and ship demand. Re-routing via the Cape of Good Hope could impact all of 2024. Long sailing distances have led to a slight increase in sailing speed. "We expect average sailing speed to remain elevated during 2024 but fall in 2025," says Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCCO. The supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight throughout 2024. Weakening could begin during second half of 2024 and will gather speed if ships return to the Suez Canal, says Rasmussen.
Ship deliveries are envisaged to hit a new record high in 2024, beating the record set in 2023. The fleet is expected to grow 15.6% between end-2023 and end-2025. Recycling is expected to remain low in 2024 as the Red Sea situation increases demand for ships but increase in 2025.
At several transshipment hubs, meanwhile, congestion has been escalating in recent months. Failures in negotiations on new labor contracts at the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports could lead to disruptions.
