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In 2023, the container market grew 0.2% year on year, ending at 173.8 million TEUs, according to the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO). Compared to 2019, before the COVID pandemic hit, the market grew 1.5%. Container market growth has significantly lagged behind overall economic development, as the world economy has grown 10% since 2019, the international shipping association points out.
Last year, the container fleet capacity grew 21% from 2019 and 8% from 2022. BIMCO projects that ships on order will add nearly 25% to the capacity during the next four and a half years. Although the recycling of older ships will moderate the future capacity, fleet growth will be significant.
Trades within regions contribute about a third of global volumes and have long been key growth drivers for the market. However, Container Trades Statistics (CTS) estimates that combined volumes in the trade lanes fell 3.7% in 2023 to end only 0.7% higher than in 2019.
The trade within the Europe/Mediterranean region has been the biggest disappointment. Volumes are estimated to have fallen 7.9% in 2023 to end 12.6% lower than in 2019. The reduction in trade between the EU and Russia since the war in Ukraine began has been a significant contributor.
North-south and south-south trades that encompass all trades to and from South and Central America, Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania regions have seen the highest growth rates in the meantime. The trades into Sub-Saharan Africa and South and Central America have stood out with growth rates of 1.1% and 11.8% from 2022 and 6.8% and 9.1% from 2019, respectively.
Growth in the east-west trades between Asia, Europe and the Mediterranean and North America regions has been hurt by a 12.0% contraction in back-haul trade lanes since 2019 whereas head-haul trades have grown 7.2% since then.
Driven by the development in the Europe and Mediterranean and North America regions, the east-west head-haul trades account for nearly 60% of ship demand. The International Monetary Fund estimates that average annual growth into the two regions will be less than 2% in 2024-2025, adding to concerns about the future supply-demand balance.
