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A total of 11.59 million TEUs of containers will be handled at Japan’s eight major ports in fiscal 2020 (April 2020-March 2021), down 5.3% year on year, Nittsu Research Institute and Consulting, Inc. (NRIC) unveiled on Tuesday. It was a small upward revision from the original projection the think tank made in July, in which it was expected that 11.563 million TEUs would be processed, down 5.5%.
Exports of loaded containers from the Big Eight ports are now anticipated to shrink 9.2% to 4.48 million TEUs in total, due to escalations in the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. As for imports, NRIC foresees that capital investment will continue to decrease from the previous fiscal year, stagnating those of parts and components for production as well as machinery. In the first quarter (January-March) of 2021, however, personal spending is expected to come back. As such, the research institute released an upward revision of its original estimate. Imports of containers to Japan are now expected to decline a milder 2.6% to 7.11 million TEUs, which were originally anticipated to wane 4.8% to 6.963 million TEUs.
The NRIC envisages the Japanese economy will incur a negative growth of 6% in fiscal 2020, which would be much worse than the sub-zero growth of 3.4% registered in fiscal 2008, the year in which Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. of the U.S. went bankrupt.
In respect to international airborne shipments to and from Japan, the research institutes forecasts that those to and from other Asian economies, which have been adversely impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak, will recover sooner in fiscal 2020. In contrast, those on the trans-Pacific route and to and from Europe are both estimated to fall some 20%. Overall airfreight exports are, therefore, anticipated to plunge 13.5% to 892,100 tons, and imports, 9% to 1,195,600 tons for a total of 2,087,600 tons, down 11%.
