News
Japan Foreign Trade Council, Inc. (JFTC) recently announced that it foresees the total value of exports from Japan (on a customs-cleared basis) will increase 2% from a year earlier to \77.387 trillion in fiscal 2016 (April 2016-March 2017). In step with growth in the global economy, the council said in a report that it had compiled on Japan’s trade and current balances that exports will enjoy a year-on-year improvement in terms of value for the fourth consecutive year.
Thanks to favorable domestic demand, meanwhile, imports are projected to improve from the previous fiscal year for the first time in three years, with the total value rising 1.7% to \79.15 trillion.
As for Japan’s current balance, JFTC indicated the nation will register positive figures in trade balance in fiscal 2016, meaning the surplus in current balance will swell for three years in a row.
It is projected in the JFTC report that exports of commodities from Japan will be valued at \75.861 trillion in total in fiscal 2015, which would only expand a slight 1.6% year on year, owing to slowdowns in business in newly industrialized economies (NIEs). Quantitatively, they will decrease 2.2%, but prices will climb 3.9%. In fiscal 2016, exports will go up 0.5% and prices, up 1.5%. It is analyzed the appreciation of the Japanese yen against the currencies of other Asian nations that hold a combined share of 50% of exports from Japan will remain. The report also indicated that commodities from Japan will remain continue to be stagnant.
As for imports to Japan, JFTC estimates they will amount to \77.855 trillion in fiscal 2015, which would sink 7.1% from the previous fiscal year. In terms of volume, they will diminish 1.5%, while prices will head south 5.7%. It is anticipated that in fiscal 2016, falls in energy prices will increase real income, contributing to stimulating domestics demand. In anticipation of a rise in the consumption tax rate in April 2017, inbound shipments will return to an upward trend, hiking a minute 0.9%. Forecasting the declines in natural resource prices will subside, the council believes the prices of import products will pick up accordingly, improving 0.8%.
Regarding Japan’s current account, the JFTC envisages the nation will enjoy year-on-year growth for two straight years in fiscal 2015. A surplus of \17.372 trillion would be a notable improvement from the \7.931, which was gained in fiscal 2014. In fiscal 2016, the surplus is estimated to reach \18.519 trillion, meaning that Japan would mark a rise in current balance for the third consecutive year. In detail, the report says that an increase in exports will become greater in growth in imports, helping Japan run a surplus in trade balance for the first time in six years, earning \32 billion. As it concerns the balance of service, receipts will continue to increase, enabling the economy to decrease its deficit to \1.062 trillion. A surplus in primary income will remain upward, expanding to \21.569 trillion.
