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Asian exports to Southern Africa grew by 5.6% in 2017, although the resulting annual count of 772,000 TEU is still below the 807,000 TEU which moved in 2013.
With more blank voyages announced for the coming months Drewry expects effective capacity will be around 5-10% lower in April and May than in the same months last year.
Broken down by Asian sub-region, according to Container Trade Statistics (CTS) last year’s exports grew fastest from North Asia, which rose by 6.8% to 175,000 TEU, closely followed by Southeast Asia (up 6.3% to 133,000 TEU) and Greater China (up 4.9% to 464,000 TEU).
Recent fluctuations in monthly capacity have revolved around void sailings with three counted in January and six in both February and March. Headhaul ship utilisation is estimated to have declined by around 10 percentage points in February, although it should be added that ships are much fuller than compared to a year ago.
Nonetheless, the softening load factors has led to some erosion in spot rates; Drewry’s Container Freight Rate Insight reported that Shanghai to Durban spot rates lost about $200 in March to reside at $2,600 per 40ft container. This is still around 25% up on the same benchmark rate in March last year.
Last year’s recovery put an end to a miserable run of three years of either declining or flat volumes. Based on the start to this year and brighter economic prospects for the inbound region, Drewry expects 2018 to see southbound Asia to Southern Africa volume surpass that of 2013.
